解放军文职招聘考试Statistics-解放军文职人员招聘-军队文职考试-红师教育

发布时间：2017-12-20 21:59:36StatisticsThere were two widely divergent influences on the early development ofstatistical methods. Statistics had a mother who was dedicated to keepingorderly records of governmental units (state and statistics come from thesame Latin root status) and a gentlemanly gambling father who relied onmathematics to increase his skill at playing the odds in games of chance.The influence of the mother on the offspring, statistics, is representedby counting, measuring, describing, tabulating, ordering, and thetaking of censuses -- all of which led to modern descriptivestatistics. From the influence of the father came modern inferentialstatistics, which is based squarely on theories of probability.Descriptive statistics involves tabulating, depicting and describingcollections of data. These data may be quantitative such as measures ofheight, intelligence or grade level -- variables that are characterized byan underlying continuum -- or the data may represent qualitative variables,such as sex, college major or personality type. Large masses of data mustgenerally undergo a process of summarization or reduction before they arecomprehensible. Descriptive statistics is a tool for describing orsummarizing or reducing to comprehensible form the properties of anotherwise unwieldy mass of data.Inferential statistics is a formalized body of methods for solving anotherclass of problems that present great difficulties for the unaidedhuman mind. This general class of problems characteristicallyinvolve attempts to make predictions using a sample ofobservations. For example, a school superintendent wishes to determine theproportion of children in a large school system who come to school withoutbreakfast, have been vaccinated for flu, or whatever. Having a littleknowledge of statistics, the superintendent would know that it isunnecessary and inefficient to question each child: the proportion for theentire district could be estimated fairlyaccurately from a sample of as few as 100 children. Thus, the purpose ofinferential statistics is to predict or estimate characteristics of apopulation from a knowledge of the characteristics of only a sample of thepopulation.统计学统计方法的早期发展受到两种截然不同的影响。 统计学有一个 母亲 ，她致力于井井有条地记录政府机构的文件(国家和统计学这两个词源于同一个拉丁语词根，status)，还有一个有绅士般的赌博 父亲 ，他依靠数学来提高赌技，以便在几率的游戏中取胜。 母亲 对其子女统计学的影响表现在计数、测量、描述、制表、归类和人口普查。 所有这些导致了 现代描述统计学的诞生。由于 父亲 的影响则产生了完全基于概率论原理的现代推理统计 学。 描述统计学涉及对所收集数据的制表、制图和描述。 这些数据可以是数量性的数据，如高度、智商、或者是层级性的数据--具有连续性的变量--或数据也可以代表性质变量，如 性别、大学专业或性格类型等等。数量庞大的数据通常必须经过概括或删减的程序才能为 人所理解。 描述统计学就是这样一个工具，它对极其庞杂的数据进行描述、概括或删减，使其变成能为人理解的东西。 推理统计学是一套已定形了的方法体系，它解决的是光凭人 脑极难解决的另一类问题。这类问题的显著特点是试图通过取样调查来作出预测。 例如， 有一位教育督察想知道在一个庞大的学校系统中，不吃早饭就上学的学生、已经做过防感冒免疫的学生，或其它任何类型的学生占多大比例。 若具备一些统计学的知识，这位督察应 明白，询问每个孩子是没有必要而且没有效率的，只要用 100个孩子为样本，他就可以相当 精确地得出这些孩子占整个学区的比例了。 因此，推理统计学的目的就是通过了解一个群体中一些样本的特性，从而对整个群体的特性进行推测和估算。

解放军文职招聘考试Forecasting of Statistics-解放军文职人员招聘-军队文职考试-红师教育

发布时间：2017-09-27 09:42:59worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobile population will stay long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then it was the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue to future events. The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers talked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms of excitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. But others pointed to the deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the Mets, and the President-elect of the Association cautioned that high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticians assume. We left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.1. Taxation in Roman days apparently was based on[A]. wealth. [B]. mobility. [C]. population. [D]. census takers.2. The American Statistical Association[A]. is converting statistical study from an art to a science.[B]. has an excellent record in business forecasting.[C]. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.[D]. speaks with mathematical exactitude.3. The message the author wishes the reader to get is[A]. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the Roman.[B]. statistics is not as yet a science.[C]. statisticians love their machine.[D].computer is hopeful.4. The greatest story ever told referred to in the passage is the story of[A]. Christmas. [B]. The Mets.[C]. Moses. [D]. Roman Census Takers.Vocabulary1. census 人口调查2. decreed 分布法令3. influx 汇集，流入（人口或物）4. census taker 人口调查员5. in the intervening years 在这期间6. sampling 取样（调查）7. presumable 可能的，可推测的8. batteries 一连串，一系列9. sage 圣人；聪明的（人 ）10. seer 先知11. newfangled 新型的（贬义）12. high-falutin 夸大的，夸张的13. deplorable 悲惨的，杂乱的14. batting average 平均成功率（原指击球平均得分数）15. ascertainable 可以确定的/确切的16. delineation 描述17. exactitude 精确难句译注1. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests.[结构简析] 复合句。And后为虚拟条件句。[参考译文] 旅馆业就忧虑旅馆建的太多，不愁人太多。但是如果他们不得不碰到意想不到大批旅客，没有什么旅馆会有一位经理去安排疲惫不堪的客人的食宿。答案祥解1. C. 人口。答案在第六句， 那时罗马计算人头作为征税的适当基础，目的很简单。A. 财富。 B. 流动性。 C. 人口调查员。2. A. 正把统计研究从文科转变成理科。这是从第六句开始讲的一种观点。 现在，政府机构和私人组织的一系列复杂的统计数字，由智者和先知人物殷切地浏览和解释以取得预先外未来事件的线索。圣经并没有告诉我们罗马的人口调查员是怎么调查统计的。至于我们当前更加关心的问题：目前经济预测的可靠性，意见分歧很大。美国统计协会125周年庆祝活动上，人们在大肆宣扬这些不同观点。有一种说法是经济预测可能正从文科转向科学（理科）发展。有些人兴高采烈大谈新型计算机和非常高级数学系统。 作者虽然没有明说，明眼人一看便知，艺术向科学转变正是美国统计协会在把统计学从文科转向理科。所以A. 对。B. 在商业预测方面具有杰出的记录。不对。实际上 平均成功率还低于the MetsC. 既没有希望也不乐观。文内没有提及。只提作者他们半喜半忧离开协会。D. 以数学的精确性来说话。见下道题解释。协会部分人却有此看法 数学精确性。A. 统计员从罗马时代起就没向前进步过。 C. 统计员爱计算机。这两项文内没有提到。 D. 计算机前程远大。文内只讲了有些人怀着兴高采烈的心情大讲新型计算机和非常高级数学 系统 ，暗示了计算机大有希望。但不是所有人都这样认为的。最重要的计算机的应用并不能改变这个事实：统计学不是立刻，而是文科。所以B. 对。4. A. 基督，圣诞节，指基督的诞生。圣经中的一个故事。B. the Mets. 圣经中率领希伯莱人出埃及的领袖，也作放债的犹太人讲。 C. 摩西。 D. 罗马人口调查员。